Finally: Projected Data You Can Trust

Komodo National Drug Projections combines multiple, distinct views of the U.S. healthcare system to provide the most accurate drug estimates on the market.

Obtaining an accurate view of the market landscape is fundamental to brand strategy. A reliable understanding of product volumes — including those of competitors — is essential to devising key metrics such as revenue forecast, market share, marketing ROI, sales force size, and many others. This understanding relies on projected data.

While current offerings for projecting drug volume are widely accepted, stakeholders often describe challenges and inaccuracies with them. Moreover, they must accept outputs generated from black-box methodologies with little insight into their foundations or limitations.

Introducing: Komodo Drug Projections
National Drug Projections, the first in an evolving suite of syndicated projection offerings, is the first step toward addressing these deficiencies. It is based on three pillars:

• The Healthcare Map™
  We have spent years curating, acquiring, and transforming multiple datasets with unique insights into the U.S. healthcare system into the most complete view of it. This foundation ensures a substantive, representative mix of data down to the zip3 level and delivers high coverage for most products. 

• Data Provider Diversity
  Komodo is the only insights provider that leverages the unique characteristics of payer- and provider-derived data and their intersection as the basis for projections. These datasets provide us with:

1. 1. A subset population with events covering their full patient journeys, allowing for accurate treatment rate calculation and measurement of coverage
   2. A minimal floor of visibility into nearly every provider in the U.S. healthcare system, enabling precise provider mix calculations

In addition, our context products, such as Komodo Patient Insurance, allow us to stratify by payer type and other patient characteristics to minimize bias in our outputs. 

• Multiple Statistical Methods
  We calculate probability estimates of coverage on an individual drug basis, and incorporate learnings as new data is ingested. We also monitor the consistency of each product’s payer and provider mix over time, adjusting accordingly to account for trend breaks and other disruptions (e.g., the Change Healthcare data breach that occurred earlier this year). 

The Result: A Trustworthy View of the Market Landscape, With No Black Boxes  
Komodo Drug Projections delivers an all-in-one view of both observed events and projected estimates — with confidence intervals — enabling you to view combined medical and pharmacy benefit estimates and aggregate outputs based on your market dynamics.

The Trend Report enables teams to track multiple drugs to understand the market.

The Projected vs. Observed Report template includes both observed and projected values with confidence intervals to better understand evolving projection factors.

The Market Share Report template enables you to visualize competitors' dynamic shifts over time.

Importantly, National Drug Projections is integrated into the no-code MapView™ workflow (within our MapLab™ platform) to make it easily accessible to all users. Outputs come in a configurable template with multiple visualizations, giving you the insights needed to understand your market. 

The Projections Roadmap

National Drug Projections currently enables weekly drug-level projections for more than 10,000 products. This offering is the foundation for an evolving product suite that Komodo Health will be launching over the coming months and into 2025.  

Would you like to have greater confidence in your projections? Learn more about our solution and sign up for a demo! 

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